October 9, 2021
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Its Saturday time, i can afford some time for weather after a hectic office weak. Just want to explain the existing scenario in one picture of what is happening with respect to weather around us.
Onset of North East Monsoon – Delayed onset on cards
With the low going to odisha and westerlies remaining, onset of North East Monsoon might not withdraw till October 20th. But who cares as long as Tamil Nadu gets rains. Particularly Kanyakumari, Valparai and Nilgiris (Gudalur-Pandalur) belts will be rocking with strong westerlies in place.
UAC on either side – Will be beneficial to Tamil Nadu too in coming days
We are back to damal dumeel days, yesterday Thanjavur-Trichy-Perambalur-Cuddalore belt got intense thunderstorms, today too North TN places are likely to get intense Thunderstorms. While Monsoon heavy rains will happen in Valparai, Kanyakumari, Theni (Periyar Dam belt), Nilgiris (Gudalur-Pandalur) belt.
Chennai – Rains chances from today to next 3 days
Always before formation of a low pressure Chennai and KTC (Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur, Chengalpet) chances are very high. Ranipet and Vellore included too. The UAC near Andaman is likely to develop into low pressure very slowly. This means our winds wont be much streamlined and we have chance for convergence in North TN coast. The ideal time for rains.
Will update the Rainfall data and Dam data shortly. Kerala is having the best water storage (even better than 2018 levels as on date).
NEM 2021Oct 2021
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Cauvery Basin and Karnataka Dam levels – Kabini and Harangi nearing full level
July 28, 2020
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Cauvery Catchment
In Karnataka Cauvery catchment, Kodagu district got decent rains propping up the inflow into KRS Dam and also Harangi Dam. The Harangi dam once full being in the upstream of KRS dam will start to contribute steady water to KRS. Hemavathy has to do some catchup with catchment areas of Chikmagalur falling behind in rains. While for Kabini down south in Wayanad has not great rains still it managed to generate inflows into Kabini Dam. Once full Kabini dam will directly give surplus water to Mettur Dam. With good rains expected in Cauvery Catchment in August, expecting all dams to get full in short period of Time.
Karnataka Dam levels
The Dam levels unlike Kerala (poor levels) looks decent for Karnataka dams. The Udupi, Uttarakannada and to an extent Shimoga district got good rains. Almatti catchment too got decent spells and has contributing water to the downstream Narayanapur Dam which inturn is contributing flows to Srisailam dam. Things look great with monsoon rains expected to peak in August. In the next month update, most of the Karnataka dams will be overflowing for sure.
Monsoon clouds cross the Ghats to Kovai, 2nd spell for South Chennai and Squall in Delta
July 3, 2020
138
Synoptic Analysis
Monsoon winds has been very active from yesterday and will continue to be so for next few days which means active days for Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, South Gujarat and Maharashtra side facing Arabian sea.
In the other side, in leeward regions it will windy at the same time we can see fast moving rains. Because of active monsoon, we cant see widespread rains like what we saw in the last week during the break monsoon.
Summary of Today
- For the 1st time, clouds have crossed ghats and have reached Coimbatore – Erode belt
- Rains in Erode, Salem, Namakkal, Coimbatore, Pudukottai, Delta belt (Thanjavur-Nagai-Tiruvarur belt)
- Chennai (South Chennai) got two spells (rare indeed)
- It will be windy due monsoon active, we wont be widespread thunderstorms which we see in break monsoon.
- Overall the leeward side will be seeing windy days with fast moving thunderstorms here and there.
- Heavy rains in Kerala to continue but nothing fearsome as of now.
Nowcasting (8.00 pm on 03.07.2020)
As you can see rain clouds in dry regions of Covai, Erode, Tiruppur in West Tamil Nadu and squall is moving in delta. Nagai and Tiruvarur will see high winds followed by fast moving rains.
Next active phase for Thunderstorms in Tamil Nadu
Though we might see daily fast moving rains overall for Tamil Nadu, the next active phase for Thunderstorms will start from July 8/9, 2020 after the UAC over Gujarat moves away and merges with heat.
Chennai
Chennai will continue to see hit or miss fast moving rains like today in the evenings and late nights.
